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A.J. Brown
WRPHI#11Active
73 · 226 lb · Age 29 · 8yr exp · Mississippi
PPG
14.7
15 GP
TGT/G
8.1
24.1% share
REC/YD
78/1,003
FPTS
220.3
season
2025 Season Stats
PPR scoring| Season | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | TGT% | YPRR | PPG | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15 | 121 | 78 | 1,003 | 7 | 24.1% | 1.98 | 14.7 | 220.3 |
Advanced Metrics
YPRR
1.98
TGT%
24.1%
EPA/TGT
+0.28
TGT
121
Age CurvePeak age 26
WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Brown is producing above the age-29 WR baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRPHIAge 29.1
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
29.1
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
+2 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 29
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 93 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
93 avg pct · FPAA +20.4
Snaps92 pct vs WR
916
61.1 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets94 pct vs WR
121
8.1 / g
↓Catch rate 64%
Receptions94 pct vs WR
78
5.2 / g
↓Yds / rec 12.9
Receiving Yards91 pct vs WR
1,003
66.9 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
200
13.3 / g
Actual
220
14.7 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+20.4
+1.4 / g
Brown turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +20.4 pts (≈ +1.4/g) over expectation.
WRPHI15 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
8.1
Snaps / G
61
Exp Pts / G
13.3
FPAA / G
+1.4
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes15 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
6.8
50th vs WR
Median
12.1
14.7 avg
Ceiling
23.3
83rd vs WR
low 1.8high 35.2
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a WR — 27% boom but 27% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
WRPHI39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRVolatile
Steadier than 24% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
27%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
27%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
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Matchup Grade
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Injury History
Full injury timeline, body-part breakdown, and return patterns.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty Value score, buy/sell signal, and long-term outlook.
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