WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Brown is producing above the age-27 WR baseline and sits 1 yr past the historical WR peak.
WRDETAge 26.8
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
26.8
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−1
Output vs avg
+7 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 98 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
98 avg pct · FPAA +16.6
Snaps95 pct vs WR
939
55.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 18%
Targets100 pct vs WR
172
10.1 / g
↓Catch rate 68%
Receptions99 pct vs WR
117
6.9 / g
↓Yds / rec 12.0
Receiving Yards98 pct vs WR
1,401
82.4 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
309
18.1 / g
→
Actual
325
19.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+16.6
+1.0 / g
Brown turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +16.6 pts (≈ +1.0/g) over expectation.
WRDET17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
10.1
Snaps / G
55
Exp Pts / G
18.1
FPAA / G
+1.0
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
10.3
86th vs WR
Median
18.0
19.1 avg
Ceiling
25.8
91st vs WR
low 0.0high 41.4
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 41% boom / 12% bust weeks, steadier than 53% of peers.
WRDET39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 53% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
41%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
12%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
Sign in for the full read
Tape Room
Tape Room
Advanced route analysis, snap-share trends, and usage patterns.
Get full access to Tape Room, projections, matchup grades, trade value, injury history, and the AI analyst read for Amon-Ra St. Brown and every other player in the database.