TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Bowers is producing above the age-24 TE baseline and sits 3 yrs from the historical TE peak.
TELVAge 23.6
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
23.6
Peak age · TE
27
Years to peak
+3
Output vs avg
+30 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 88 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
88 avg pct · FPAA +33.4
Snaps75 pct vs TE
605
50.4 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets92 pct vs TE
86
7.2 / g
↓Catch rate 74%
Receptions93 pct vs TE
64
5.3 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.6
Receiving Yards92 pct vs TE
680
56.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
141
11.7 / g
→
Actual
174
14.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+33.4
+2.8 / g
Bowers turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +33.4 pts (≈ +2.8/g) over expectation.
TELV12 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
7.2
Snaps / G
50
Exp Pts / G
11.7
FPAA / G
+2.8
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes12 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
9.0
88th vs TE
Median
12.9
14.7 avg
Ceiling
15.2
38th vs TE
low 3.7high 43.3
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a TE — 25% boom but 8% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
TELV13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEVolatile
Steadier than 25% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
25%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
8%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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