WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Lamb is producing below the age-27 WR baseline and sits 1 yr past the historical WR peak.
WRDALAge 27.3
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.3
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−1
Output vs avg
−8 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 90 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
90 avg pct · FPAA −2.7
Snaps79 pct vs WR
732
56.3 / g
↓Tgt / snap 16%
Targets92 pct vs WR
117
9.0 / g
↓Catch rate 64%
Receptions92 pct vs WR
75
5.8 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.4
Receiving Yards96 pct vs WR
1,077
82.8 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
204
15.7 / g
→
Actual
201
15.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−2.7
−0.2 / g
Lamb is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 2.7 pts (≈ −0.2/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
WRDAL13 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
9.0
Snaps / G
56
Exp Pts / G
15.7
FPAA / G
−0.2
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes13 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
11.3
88th vs WR
Median
17.1
15.5 avg
Ceiling
19.4
55th vs WR
low 1.4high 24.2
Steady floor play
Steadier than 97% of WRs — a dependable weekly floor (8% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
WRDAL39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRSteady
Steadier than 97% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
23%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
8%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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