WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Olave is producing below the age-26 WR baseline and sits at the historical WR peak.
WRNOAge 26.1
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
26.1
Peak age · WR
26
At peak age
0
Output vs avg
−6 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 96 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, volume-built output
96 avg pct · FPAA +5.9
Snaps90 pct vs WR
887
55.4 / g
↓Tgt / snap 18%
Targets98 pct vs WR
156
9.8 / g
↓Catch rate 64%
Receptions98 pct vs WR
100
6.3 / g
↓Yds / rec 11.6
Receiving Yards97 pct vs WR
1,163
72.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
264
16.5 / g
→
Actual
270
16.9 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+5.9
+0.4 / g
Olave converts opportunity at about the expected rate — production is volume-built, with a slim +5.9-pt efficiency cushion.
WRNO16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Volume-driven
Tgt / G
9.8
Snaps / G
55
Exp Pts / G
16.5
FPAA / G
+0.4
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
11.4
94th vs WR
Median
15.2
16.8 avg
Ceiling
21.4
76th vs WR
low 6.0high 36.8
Steady floor play
Steadier than 84% of WRs — a dependable weekly floor (6% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
WRNO39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRSteady
Steadier than 84% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
31%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
6%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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