RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
McCaffrey is producing above the age-30 RB baseline and sits 6 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBSFAge 30.2
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
30.2
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−6
Output vs avg
+89 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 30
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 100 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, volume-built output
100 avg pct · FPAA +2.0
Snaps100 pct vs RB
1,015
59.7 / g
↓Opp / snap 43%
Opportunities100 pct vs RB
440
25.9 / g
↓Touch rate 94%
Touches100 pct vs RB
413
24.3 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.1
Total Yards99 pct vs RB
2,126
125.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
413
24.3 / g
→
Actual
415
24.4 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+2.0
+0.1 / g
McCaffrey converts opportunity at about the expected rate — production is volume-built, with a slim +2.0-pt efficiency cushion.
RBSF17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Volume-driven
Opp / G
25.9
Snaps / G
60
Exp Pts / G
24.3
FPAA / G
+0.1
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
17.4
98th vs RB
Median
24.1
24.5 avg
Ceiling
31.7
91st vs RB
low 9.8high 39.1
Steady floor play
Steadier than 100% of RBs — a dependable weekly floor (0% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
RBSF27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBSteady
Steadier than 100% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
71%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
0%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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