TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Loveland is producing above the age-22 TE baseline and sits 5 yrs from the historical TE peak.
TECHIAge 22.3
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
22.3
Peak age · TE
27
Years to peak
+5
Output vs avg
+20 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 22
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 90 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
90 avg pct · FPAA +25.0
Snaps89 pct vs TE
817
51.1 / g
↓Tgt / snap 10%
Targets90 pct vs TE
82
5.1 / g
↓Catch rate 71%
Receptions89 pct vs TE
58
3.6 / g
↓Yds / rec 12.3
Receiving Yards93 pct vs TE
713
44.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
141
8.8 / g
→
Actual
166
10.4 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+25.0
+1.6 / g
Loveland turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +25.0 pts (≈ +1.6/g) over expectation.
TECHI16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
5.1
Snaps / G
51
Exp Pts / G
8.8
FPAA / G
+1.6
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.1
4th vs TE
Median
6.9
10.3 avg
Ceiling
14.9
19th vs TE
low 0.0high 29.8
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a TE — 19% boom but 25% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
TECHI13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEVolatile
Steadier than 0% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
19%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
25%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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