RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Swift is producing above the age-28 RB baseline and sits 4 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBCHIAge 27.6
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.6
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−4
Output vs avg
+22 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 28
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 89 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
89 avg pct · FPAA +20.4
Snaps90 pct vs RB
710
44.4 / g
↓Opp / snap 38%
Opportunities87 pct vs RB
271
16.9 / g
↓Touch rate 95%
Touches87 pct vs RB
257
16.1 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.4
Total Yards90 pct vs RB
1,386
86.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
211
13.2 / g
→
Actual
232
14.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+20.4
+1.3 / g
Swift turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +20.4 pts (≈ +1.3/g) over expectation.
RBCHI16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
16.9
Snaps / G
44
Exp Pts / G
13.2
FPAA / G
+1.3
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
9.0
57th vs RB
Median
14.4
14.3 avg
Ceiling
20.8
65th vs RB
low 1.9high 25.5
Steady floor play
Steadier than 73% of RBs — a dependable weekly floor (13% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
RBCHI27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBSteady
Steadier than 73% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
31%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
13%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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