WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Adams is producing above the age-34 WR baseline and sits 8 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRLAAge 33.6
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
33.6
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−8
Output vs avg
+59 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 34
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 88 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
88 avg pct · FPAA +17.4
Snaps85 pct vs WR
788
56.3 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets92 pct vs WR
114
8.1 / g
↓Catch rate 53%
Receptions86 pct vs WR
60
4.3 / g
↓Yds / rec 13.2
Receiving Yards87 pct vs WR
789
56.4 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
206
14.7 / g
→
Actual
223
15.9 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+17.4
+1.2 / g
Adams turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +17.4 pts (≈ +1.2/g) over expectation.
WRLA14 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
8.1
Snaps / G
56
Exp Pts / G
14.7
FPAA / G
+1.2
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes14 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
8.6
76th vs WR
Median
15.1
15.9 avg
Ceiling
22.8
81st vs WR
low 6.9high 26.5
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 36% boom / 21% bust weeks, steadier than 92% of peers.
WRLA39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 92% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
36%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
21%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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