WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Sr. is producing above the age-31 WR baseline and sits 5 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRWASAge 30.6
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
30.6
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−5
Output vs avg
+4 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 31
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 85 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, volume-built output
85 avg pct · FPAA +7.2
Snaps77 pct vs WR
713
44.6 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets86 pct vs WR
99
6.2 / g
↓Catch rate 73%
Receptions91 pct vs WR
72
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.1
Receiving Yards85 pct vs WR
727
45.4 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
181
11.3 / g
→
Actual
188
11.8 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+7.2
+0.5 / g
Sr. converts opportunity at about the expected rate — production is volume-built, with a slim +7.2-pt efficiency cushion.
WRWAS16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Volume-driven
Tgt / G
6.2
Snaps / G
45
Exp Pts / G
11.3
FPAA / G
+0.5
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.4
32nd vs WR
Median
10.3
11.8 avg
Ceiling
20.1
68th vs WR
low 4.1high 23.6
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 25% boom / 44% bust weeks, steadier than 45% of peers.
WRWAS39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 45% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
25%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
44%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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