WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Moore is producing below the age-29 WR baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRBUFAge 29.3
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
29.3
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
−20 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 29
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 85 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
85 avg pct · FPAA +11.4
Snaps100 pct vs WR
1,104
64.9 / g
↓Tgt / snap 8%▼ biggest drop-off
Targets80 pct vs WR
85
5.0 / g
↓Catch rate 59%
Receptions80 pct vs WR
50
2.9 / g
↓Yds / rec 13.6
Receiving Yards81 pct vs WR
682
40.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
155
9.1 / g
→
Actual
167
9.8 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+11.4
+0.7 / g
Moore turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +11.4 pts (≈ +0.7/g) over expectation.
WRCHI17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
5.0
Snaps / G
65
Exp Pts / G
9.1
FPAA / G
+0.7
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
2.3
1st vs WR
Median
8.2
10.1 avg
Ceiling
20.1
65th vs WR
low 0.0high 23.4
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a WR — 24% boom but 41% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
WRBUF39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRVolatile
Steadier than 3% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
41%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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