WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Pickens is producing below the age-25 WR baseline and sits 1 yr from the historical WR peak.
WRDALAge 25.4
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
25.4
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+1
Output vs avg
−2 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 25
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 98 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
98 avg pct · FPAA +62.4
Snaps97 pct vs WR
968
56.9 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets97 pct vs WR
137
8.1 / g
↓Catch rate 68%
Receptions98 pct vs WR
93
5.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 15.4
Receiving Yards99 pct vs WR
1,429
84.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
228
13.4 / g
→
Actual
290
17.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+62.4
+3.7 / g
Pickens turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +62.4 pts (≈ +3.7/g) over expectation.
WRDAL17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
8.1
Snaps / G
57
Exp Pts / G
13.4
FPAA / G
+3.7
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
9.3
83rd vs WR
Median
14.8
17.2 avg
Ceiling
28.7
99th vs WR
low 1.9high 33.4
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 29% boom / 18% bust weeks, steadier than 58% of peers.
WRDAL39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 58% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
29%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
18%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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