TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Jr. is producing above the age-22 TE baseline and sits 5 yrs from the historical TE peak.
TECLEAge 22.0
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
22.0
Peak age · TE
27
Years to peak
+5
Output vs avg
+34 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 22
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 93 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
93 avg pct · FPAA +14.8
Snaps87 pct vs TE
786
49.1 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets96 pct vs TE
107
6.7 / g
↓Catch rate 67%
Receptions94 pct vs TE
72
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.2
Receiving Yards94 pct vs TE
731
45.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
174
10.9 / g
→
Actual
188
11.8 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+14.8
+0.9 / g
Jr. turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +14.8 pts (≈ +0.9/g) over expectation.
TECLE16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.7
Snaps / G
49
Exp Pts / G
10.9
FPAA / G
+0.9
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.6
81st vs TE
Median
11.2
11.7 avg
Ceiling
15.1
27th vs TE
low 4.5high 25.4
Steady floor play
Steadier than 75% of TEs — a dependable weekly floor (13% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
TECLE13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TESteady
Steadier than 75% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
25%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
13%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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