TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Henry is producing above the age-32 TE baseline and sits 5 yrs past the historical TE peak.
TENEAge 31.7
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
31.7
Peak age · TE
27
Years past peak
−5
Output vs avg
+17 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 32
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 95 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
95 avg pct · FPAA +30.2
Snaps100 pct vs TE
1,067
62.8 / g
↓Tgt / snap 8%
Targets93 pct vs TE
87
5.1 / g
↓Catch rate 69%
Receptions91 pct vs TE
60
3.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 12.8
Receiving Yards94 pct vs TE
768
45.2 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
149
8.7 / g
→
Actual
179
10.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+30.2
+1.8 / g
Henry turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +30.2 pts (≈ +1.8/g) over expectation.
TENE17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
5.1
Snaps / G
63
Exp Pts / G
8.7
FPAA / G
+1.8
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.9
50th vs TE
Median
9.1
10.5 avg
Ceiling
13.5
4th vs TE
low 1.9high 29.0
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a TE — 18% boom but 18% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
TENE13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEVolatile
Steadier than 17% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
18%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
18%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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