RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Gibbs is producing above the age-24 RB baseline and sits at the historical RB peak.
RBDETAge 24.4
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
24.4
Peak age · RB
24
At peak age
0
Output vs avg
+7 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 96 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
96 avg pct · FPAA +65.7
Snaps94 pct vs RB
737
43.4 / g
↓Opp / snap 46%
Opportunities96 pct vs RB
337
19.8 / g
↓Touch rate 95%
Touches95 pct vs RB
320
18.8 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.7
Total Yards97 pct vs RB
1,839
108.2 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
303
17.8 / g
→
Actual
369
21.7 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+65.7
+3.9 / g
Gibbs turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +65.7 pts (≈ +3.9/g) over expectation.
RBDET17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
19.8
Snaps / G
43
Exp Pts / G
17.8
FPAA / G
+3.9
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
10.2
72nd vs RB
Median
19.4
21.6 avg
Ceiling
34.8
98th vs RB
low 5.8high 55.4
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 41% boom but 18% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBDET27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 19% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
41%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
18%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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