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Jake Ferguson
TEDAL#87Active
77 · 244 lb · Age 27 · 5yr exp · Wisconsin
PPG
11.1
17 GP
TGT/G
6.0
16.6% share
REC/YD
82/600
FPTS
188.1
season
2025 Season Stats
PPR scoring| Season | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | TGT% | YPRR | PPG | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 16.6% | 1.13 | 11.1 | 188.1 |
Advanced Metrics
YPRR
1.13
TGT%
16.6%
EPA/TGT
+0.19
TGT
102
Age CurvePeak age 27
TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Ferguson is producing below the age-28 TE baseline and sits 1 yr past the historical TE peak.
TEDALAge 27.5
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
27.5
Peak age · TE
27
Years past peak
−1
Output vs avg
−11 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 28
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 92 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
92 avg pct · FPAA +12.0
Snaps87 pct vs TE
786
46.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets94 pct vs TE
102
6.0 / g
↓Catch rate 80%
Receptions97 pct vs TE
82
4.8 / g
↓Yds / rec 7.3
Receiving Yards89 pct vs TE
600
35.3 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
178
10.5 / g
Actual
190
11.2 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+12.0
+0.7 / g
Ferguson turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +12.0 pts (≈ +0.7/g) over expectation.
TEDAL17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.0
Snaps / G
46
Exp Pts / G
10.5
FPAA / G
+0.7
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.4
35th vs TE
Median
10.8
11.1 avg
Ceiling
17.0
81st vs TE
low 0.0high 23.9
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a TE — 29% boom / 24% bust weeks, steadier than 33% of peers.
TEDAL13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEBalanced
Steadier than 33% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
29%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
24%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
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Matchup Grade
Opponent-specific coverage matchup grades and historical splits.
Injury History
Full injury timeline, body-part breakdown, and return patterns.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty Value score, buy/sell signal, and long-term outlook.
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