WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Chase is producing above the age-26 WR baseline and sits at the historical WR peak.
WRCINAge 26.4
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
26.4
Peak age · WR
26
At peak age
0
Output vs avg
+6 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 100 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
100 avg pct · FPAA +11.7
Snaps99 pct vs WR
987
61.7 / g
↓Tgt / snap 19%
Targets100 pct vs WR
185
11.6 / g
↓Catch rate 68%
Receptions100 pct vs WR
125
7.8 / g
↓Yds / rec 11.3
Receiving Yards99 pct vs WR
1,412
88.3 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
304
19.0 / g
→
Actual
316
19.7 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+11.7
+0.7 / g
Chase turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +11.7 pts (≈ +0.7/g) over expectation.
WRCIN16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
11.6
Snaps / G
62
Exp Pts / G
19.0
FPAA / G
+0.7
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
8.9
81st vs WR
Median
20.5
19.6 avg
Ceiling
25.1
88th vs WR
low 4.6high 38.1
Steady floor play
Steadier than 71% of WRs — a dependable weekly floor (19% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
WRCIN39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRSteady
Steadier than 71% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
50%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
19%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
Sign in for the full read
Tape Room
Tape Room
Advanced route analysis, snap-share trends, and usage patterns.
Get full access to Tape Room, projections, matchup grades, trade value, injury history, and the AI analyst read for Ja'Marr Chase and every other player in the database.