WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Jennings is producing below the age-29 WR baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRSFAge 29.1
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
29.1
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
−15 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 29
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 84 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
84 avg pct · FPAA +19.5
Snaps91 pct vs WR
899
59.9 / g
↓Tgt / snap 10%
Targets82 pct vs WR
90
6.0 / g
↓Catch rate 61%
Receptions82 pct vs WR
55
3.7 / g
↓Yds / rec 11.7
Receiving Yards80 pct vs WR
643
42.9 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
154
10.3 / g
→
Actual
173
11.6 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+19.5
+1.3 / g
Jennings turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +19.5 pts (≈ +1.3/g) over expectation.
WRSF15 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.0
Snaps / G
60
Exp Pts / G
10.3
FPAA / G
+1.3
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes15 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.0
53rd vs WR
Median
12.2
11.6 avg
Ceiling
17.3
27th vs WR
low 1.7high 19.9
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 0% boom / 33% bust weeks, steadier than 76% of peers.
WRSF39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 76% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
0%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
33%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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