WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Waddle is producing below the age-28 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRDENAge 27.7
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.7
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−2
Output vs avg
−24 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 28
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 86 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
86 avg pct · FPAA +21.4
Snaps78 pct vs WR
722
45.1 / g
↓Tgt / snap 14%
Targets87 pct vs WR
100
6.3 / g
↓Catch rate 64%
Receptions87 pct vs WR
64
4.0 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.2
Receiving Yards90 pct vs WR
910
56.9 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
172
10.8 / g
→
Actual
194
12.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+21.4
+1.3 / g
Waddle turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +21.4 pts (≈ +1.3/g) over expectation.
WRMIA16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.3
Snaps / G
45
Exp Pts / G
10.8
FPAA / G
+1.3
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.0
55th vs WR
Median
13.2
12.1 avg
Ceiling
18.1
37th vs WR
low 0.7high 23.0
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 13% boom / 38% bust weeks, steadier than 55% of peers.
WRDEN39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 55% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
13%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
38%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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