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Justin Jefferson
WRMIN#18Active
73 · 195 lb · Age 27 · 7yr exp · LSU
PPG
11.8
17 GP
TGT/G
8.3
29.1% share
REC/YD
84/1,048
FPTS
201.5
season
2025 Season Stats
PPR scoring| Season | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | TGT% | YPRR | PPG | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 141 | 84 | 1,048 | 2 | 29.1% | 1.89 | 11.8 | 201.5 |
Advanced Metrics
YPRR
1.89
TGT%
29.1%
EPA/TGT
-0.10
TGT
141
Age CurvePeak age 26
WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Jefferson is producing below the age-27 WR baseline and sits 1 yr past the historical WR peak.
WRMINAge 27.1
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.1
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−1
Output vs avg
−28 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 96 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
96 avg pct · FPAA −37.3
Snaps95 pct vs WR
941
55.4 / g
↓Tgt / snap 15%
Targets98 pct vs WR
141
8.3 / g
↓Catch rate 60%
Receptions96 pct vs WR
84
4.9 / g
↓Yds / rec 12.5
Receiving Yards95 pct vs WR
1,048
61.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
239
14.0 / g
Actual
202
11.9 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−37.3
−2.2 / g
Jefferson is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 37.3 pts (≈ −2.2/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
WRMIN17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
8.3
Snaps / G
55
Exp Pts / G
14.0
FPAA / G
−2.2
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.1
58th vs WR
Median
12.5
11.9 avg
Ceiling
16.3
17th vs WR
low 2.4high 22.6
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 6% boom / 29% bust weeks, steadier than 79% of peers.
WRMIN39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 79% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
6%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
29%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
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Advanced route analysis, snap-share trends, and usage patterns.
Projections
Week-by-week fantasy point projections with scenario modeling.
Matchup Grade
Opponent-specific coverage matchup grades and historical splits.
Injury History
Full injury timeline, body-part breakdown, and return patterns.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty Value score, buy/sell signal, and long-term outlook.
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