TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Johnson is producing below the age-30 TE baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical TE peak.
TENOAge 29.9
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
29.9
Peak age · TE
27
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
−1 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 30
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 95 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
95 avg pct · FPAA +14.2
Snaps90 pct vs TE
850
50.0 / g
↓Tgt / snap 12%
Targets94 pct vs TE
102
6.0 / g
↓Catch rate 75%
Receptions96 pct vs TE
77
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 11.5
Receiving Yards98 pct vs TE
889
52.3 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
170
10.0 / g
→
Actual
184
10.8 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+14.2
+0.8 / g
Johnson turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +14.2 pts (≈ +0.8/g) over expectation.
TENO17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.0
Snaps / G
50
Exp Pts / G
10.0
FPAA / G
+0.8
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.0
73rd vs TE
Median
10.6
10.6 avg
Ceiling
15.2
50th vs TE
low 1.5high 19.2
Steady floor play
Steadier than 83% of TEs — a dependable weekly floor (12% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
TENO13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TESteady
Steadier than 83% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
12%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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