WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Allen is producing above the age-34 WR baseline and sits 8 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRLACAge 34.3
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
34.3
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−8
Output vs avg
+37 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 34
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 88 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
88 avg pct · FPAA −14.3
Snaps75 pct vs WR
666
39.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 18%
Targets94 pct vs WR
122
7.2 / g
↓Catch rate 66%
Receptions95 pct vs WR
81
4.8 / g
↓Yds / rec 9.6
Receiving Yards86 pct vs WR
777
45.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
197
11.6 / g
→
Actual
183
10.7 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−14.3
−0.8 / g
Allen is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 14.3 pts (≈ −0.8/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
WRLAC17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
7.2
Snaps / G
39
Exp Pts / G
11.6
FPAA / G
−0.8
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
6.2
42nd vs WR
Median
8.7
10.7 avg
Ceiling
15.8
14th vs WR
low 2.7high 28.9
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 6% boom / 35% bust weeks, steadier than 34% of peers.
WRLAC39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 34% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
6%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
35%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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