RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Gainwell is producing above the age-27 RB baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBTBAge 27.4
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.4
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
+13 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 80 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
80 avg pct · FPAA +14.5
Snaps81 pct vs RB
549
32.3 / g
↓Opp / snap 36%
Opportunities78 pct vs RB
199
11.7 / g
↓Touch rate 94%
Touches78 pct vs RB
187
11.0 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.5
Total Yards83 pct vs RB
1,023
60.2 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
209
12.3 / g
→
Actual
223
13.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+14.5
+0.9 / g
Gainwell turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +14.5 pts (≈ +0.9/g) over expectation.
RBPIT17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
11.7
Snaps / G
32
Exp Pts / G
12.3
FPAA / G
+0.9
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.5
20th vs RB
Median
9.6
13.0 avg
Ceiling
21.0
72nd vs RB
low 2.4high 31.4
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 24% boom but 47% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBTB27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 12% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
47%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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