RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
III is producing below the age-26 RB baseline and sits 2 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBKCAge 25.8
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
25.8
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−2
Output vs avg
−25 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 86 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
86 avg pct · FPAA +10.6
Snaps87 pct vs RB
620
36.5 / g
↓Opp / snap 41%
Opportunities85 pct vs RB
257
15.1 / g
↓Touch rate 98%
Touches85 pct vs RB
252
14.8 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.2
Total Yards87 pct vs RB
1,309
77.0 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
181
10.7 / g
→
Actual
192
11.3 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+10.6
+0.6 / g
III turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +10.6 pts (≈ +0.6/g) over expectation.
RBSEA17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
15.1
Snaps / G
36
Exp Pts / G
10.7
FPAA / G
+0.6
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.6
31st vs RB
Median
9.6
11.3 avg
Ceiling
17.9
31st vs RB
low 2.9high 25.4
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a RB — 12% boom / 35% bust weeks, steadier than 46% of peers.
RBKC27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBBalanced
Steadier than 46% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
12%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
35%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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