WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Shakir is producing below the age-27 WR baseline and sits 1 yr past the historical WR peak.
WRBUFAge 26.5
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
26.5
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−1
Output vs avg
−38 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 85 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
85 avg pct · FPAA +8.3
Snaps79 pct vs WR
730
45.6 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets84 pct vs WR
95
5.9 / g
↓Catch rate 76%
Receptions91 pct vs WR
72
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.0
Receiving Yards84 pct vs WR
719
44.9 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
157
9.8 / g
→
Actual
165
10.3 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+8.3
+0.5 / g
Shakir turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +8.3 pts (≈ +0.5/g) over expectation.
WRBUF16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
5.9
Snaps / G
46
Exp Pts / G
9.8
FPAA / G
+0.5
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
6.3
45th vs WR
Median
11.2
10.4 avg
Ceiling
14.5
4th vs WR
low 0.7high 20.8
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 6% boom / 31% bust weeks, steadier than 66% of peers.
WRBUF39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 66% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
6%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
31%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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