TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Pitts is producing above the age-26 TE baseline and sits 1 yr from the historical TE peak.
TEATLAge 25.8
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
25.8
Peak age · TE
27
Years to peak
+1
Output vs avg
+2 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 98 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
98 avg pct · FPAA +13.2
Snaps96 pct vs TE
961
56.5 / g
↓Tgt / snap 12%
Targets99 pct vs TE
118
6.9 / g
↓Catch rate 75%
Receptions99 pct vs TE
88
5.2 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.5
Receiving Yards99 pct vs TE
928
54.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
198
11.6 / g
→
Actual
211
12.4 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+13.2
+0.8 / g
Pitts turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +13.2 pts (≈ +0.8/g) over expectation.
TEATL17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.9
Snaps / G
57
Exp Pts / G
11.6
FPAA / G
+0.8
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.0
19th vs TE
Median
11.8
12.4 avg
Ceiling
15.2
38th vs TE
low 3.4high 45.6
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a TE — 29% boom but 24% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
TEATL13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEVolatile
Steadier than 8% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
29%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
24%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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