RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Williams is producing below the age-26 RB baseline and sits 2 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBLAAge 25.9
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
25.9
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−2
Output vs avg
−3 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 94 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
94 avg pct · FPAA +17.1
Snaps99 pct vs RB
900
52.9 / g
↓Opp / snap 34%
Opportunities91 pct vs RB
309
18.2 / g
↓Touch rate 95%
Touches91 pct vs RB
295
17.4 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.2
Total Yards94 pct vs RB
1,533
90.2 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
250
14.7 / g
→
Actual
267
15.7 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+17.1
+1.0 / g
Williams turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +17.1 pts (≈ +1.0/g) over expectation.
RBLA17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
18.2
Snaps / G
53
Exp Pts / G
14.7
FPAA / G
+1.0
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
10.5
83rd vs RB
Median
16.0
15.5 avg
Ceiling
18.9
39th vs RB
low 5.8high 31.1
Steady floor play
Steadier than 92% of RBs — a dependable weekly floor (6% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
RBLA27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBSteady
Steadier than 92% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
18%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
6%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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