WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Jr. is producing below the age-24 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs from the historical WR peak.
WRARIAge 24.0
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
24.0
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+2
Output vs avg
−28 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 74 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Developing role
74 avg pct · FPAA +3.0
Snaps68 pct vs WR
566
47.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets76 pct vs WR
73
6.1 / g
↓Catch rate 56%
Receptions74 pct vs WR
41
3.4 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.8
Receiving Yards79 pct vs WR
608
50.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
123
10.2 / g
→
Actual
126
10.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+3.0
+0.3 / g
Jr. converts opportunity at about the expected rate — production is volume-built, with a slim +3.0-pt efficiency cushion.
WRARI12 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Volume-driven
Tgt / G
6.1
Snaps / G
47
Exp Pts / G
10.2
FPAA / G
+0.3
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
13
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes12 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.8
17th vs WR
Median
10.4
10.7 avg
Ceiling
17.3
29th vs WR
low 0.0high 22.6
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a WR — 8% boom but 50% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
WRARI39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRVolatile
Steadier than 26% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
8%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
50%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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