WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Washington is producing below the age-24 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs from the historical WR peak.
WRJAXAge 24.4
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
24.4
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+2
Output vs avg
−26 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 84 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
84 avg pct · FPAA +8.2
Snaps77 pct vs WR
712
44.5 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets84 pct vs WR
95
5.9 / g
↓Catch rate 61%
Receptions84 pct vs WR
58
3.6 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.6
Receiving Yards89 pct vs WR
847
52.9 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
165
10.3 / g
→
Actual
173
10.8 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+8.2
+0.5 / g
Washington turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +8.2 pts (≈ +0.5/g) over expectation.
WRJAX16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
5.9
Snaps / G
45
Exp Pts / G
10.3
FPAA / G
+0.5
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.9
19th vs WR
Median
9.9
11.5 avg
Ceiling
18.1
37th vs WR
low 0.0high 26.5
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 6% boom / 38% bust weeks, steadier than 32% of peers.
WRJAX39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 32% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
6%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
38%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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