WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Johnston is producing below the age-25 WR baseline and sits 1 yr from the historical WR peak.
WRLACAge 24.9
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
24.9
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+1
Output vs avg
−21 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 25
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 82 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
82 avg pct · FPAA +28.4
Snaps81 pct vs WR
769
59.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 11%
Targets79 pct vs WR
84
6.5 / g
↓Catch rate 61%
Receptions81 pct vs WR
51
3.9 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.4
Receiving Yards85 pct vs WR
735
56.5 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
145
11.1 / g
→
Actual
173
13.3 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+28.4
+2.2 / g
Johnston turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +28.4 pts (≈ +2.2/g) over expectation.
WRLAC13 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.5
Snaps / G
59
Exp Pts / G
11.1
FPAA / G
+2.2
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
7
9
10
11
13
14
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes13 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.8
71st vs WR
Median
14.8
13.2 avg
Ceiling
18.6
42nd vs WR
low 0.0high 24.9
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 23% boom / 23% bust weeks, steadier than 63% of peers.
WRLAC39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 63% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
23%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
23%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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