RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Stevenson is producing above the age-28 RB baseline and sits 4 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBNEAge 28.4
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
28.4
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−4
Output vs avg
+29 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 28
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 78 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Efficiency-driven, modest volume
78 avg pct · FPAA +33.2
Snaps91 pct vs RB
718
51.3 / g
↓Opp / snap 23%▼ biggest drop-off
Opportunities69 pct vs RB
167
11.9 / g
↓Touch rate 97%
Touches70 pct vs RB
162
11.6 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.9
Total Yards81 pct vs RB
948
67.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
148
10.6 / g
→
Actual
181
12.9 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+33.2
+2.4 / g
Stevenson turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +33.2 pts (≈ +2.4/g) over expectation.
RBNE14 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency-driven
Opp / G
11.9
Snaps / G
51
Exp Pts / G
10.6
FPAA / G
+2.4
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes14 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.7
6th vs RB
Median
10.9
12.8 avg
Ceiling
19.2
48th vs RB
low 1.8high 35.3
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 21% boom but 43% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBNE27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 4% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
21%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
43%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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