RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Harvey is producing below the age-26 RB baseline and sits 2 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBDENAge 25.5
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
25.5
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−2
Output vs avg
−25 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 26
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 80 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
80 avg pct · FPAA +19.2
Snaps83 pct vs RB
557
32.8 / g
↓Opp / snap 37%
Opportunities79 pct vs RB
204
12.0 / g
↓Touch rate 95%
Touches79 pct vs RB
193
11.4 / g
↓Yds / touch 4.6
Total Yards78 pct vs RB
896
52.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
189
11.1 / g
→
Actual
209
12.3 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+19.2
+1.1 / g
Harvey turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +19.2 pts (≈ +1.1/g) over expectation.
RBDEN17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
12.0
Snaps / G
33
Exp Pts / G
11.1
FPAA / G
+1.1
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.9
13th vs RB
Median
8.0
12.2 avg
Ceiling
20.9
69th vs RB
low 3.4high 24.1
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 24% boom but 47% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBDEN27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 19% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
47%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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