WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Odunze is producing below the age-24 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs from the historical WR peak.
WRCHIAge 24.2
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
24.2
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+2
Output vs avg
−22 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 82 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
82 avg pct · FPAA −8.7
Snaps88 pct vs WR
849
70.8 / g
↓Tgt / snap 11%
Targets82 pct vs WR
90
7.5 / g
↓Catch rate 49%
Receptions76 pct vs WR
44
3.7 / g
↓Yds / rec 15.0
Receiving Yards81 pct vs WR
661
55.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
156
13.0 / g
→
Actual
147
12.3 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−8.7
−0.7 / g
Odunze is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 8.7 pts (≈ −0.7/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
WRCHI12 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
7.5
Snaps / G
71
Exp Pts / G
13.0
FPAA / G
−0.7
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes12 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.1
27th vs WR
Median
11.8
12.2 avg
Ceiling
18.1
37th vs WR
low 0.0high 31.8
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a WR — 17% boom but 42% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
WRCHI39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRVolatile
Steadier than 5% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
17%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
42%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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