RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Barkley is producing above the age-30 RB baseline and sits 6 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBPHIAge 29.5
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
29.5
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−6
Output vs avg
+51 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 30
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 95 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
95 avg pct · FPAA −12.7
Snaps97 pct vs RB
835
52.2 / g
↓Opp / snap 40%
Opportunities95 pct vs RB
330
20.6 / g
↓Touch rate 96%
Touches94 pct vs RB
317
19.8 / g
↓Yds / touch 4.5
Total Yards92 pct vs RB
1,413
88.3 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
245
15.3 / g
→
Actual
233
14.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−12.7
−0.8 / g
Barkley is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 12.7 pts (≈ −0.8/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
RBPHI16 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Opp / G
20.6
Snaps / G
52
Exp Pts / G
15.3
FPAA / G
−0.8
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes16 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
8.7
48th vs RB
Median
15.2
14.5 avg
Ceiling
18.2
35th vs RB
low 5.2high 33.4
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a RB — 13% boom / 19% bust weeks, steadier than 65% of peers.
RBPHI27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBBalanced
Steadier than 65% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
13%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
19%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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