WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Higgins is producing below the age-28 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs past the historical WR peak.
WRCINAge 27.5
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
27.5
Peak age · WR
26
Years past peak
−2
Output vs avg
−15 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 28
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 85 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
85 avg pct · FPAA +48.5
Snaps81 pct vs WR
769
51.3 / g
↓Tgt / snap 13%
Targets85 pct vs WR
98
6.5 / g
↓Catch rate 60%
Receptions85 pct vs WR
59
3.9 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.3
Receiving Yards88 pct vs WR
846
56.4 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
163
10.9 / g
→
Actual
212
14.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+48.5
+3.2 / g
Higgins turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +48.5 pts (≈ +3.2/g) over expectation.
WRCIN15 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.5
Snaps / G
51
Exp Pts / G
10.9
FPAA / G
+3.2
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
14
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes15 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.7
68th vs WR
Median
11.4
14.1 avg
Ceiling
19.3
53rd vs WR
low 2.5high 33.1
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 20% boom / 20% bust weeks, steadier than 47% of peers.
WRCIN39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 47% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
20%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
20%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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