WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
McMillan is producing below the age-23 WR baseline and sits 3 yrs from the historical WR peak.
WRCARAge 23.3
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
23.3
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+3
Output vs avg
−10 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 23
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 94 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
94 avg pct · FPAA +15.1
Snaps98 pct vs WR
985
57.9 / g
↓Tgt / snap 12%
Targets94 pct vs WR
122
7.2 / g
↓Catch rate 57%
Receptions90 pct vs WR
70
4.1 / g
↓Yds / rec 14.5
Receiving Yards94 pct vs WR
1,014
59.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
198
11.7 / g
→
Actual
213
12.5 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+15.1
+0.9 / g
McMillan turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +15.1 pts (≈ +0.9/g) over expectation.
WRCAR17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
7.2
Snaps / G
58
Exp Pts / G
11.7
FPAA / G
+0.9
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
8.0
73rd vs WR
Median
11.5
12.6 avg
Ceiling
16.7
19th vs WR
low 1.5high 33.0
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a WR — 6% boom / 24% bust weeks, steadier than 58% of peers.
WRCAR39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRBalanced
Steadier than 58% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
6%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
24%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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