TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Kelce is producing above the age-37 TE baseline and sits 10 yrs past the historical TE peak.
TEKCAge 36.8
Career phase
Late decline
Sustained decay vs the positional baseline — replacement risk elevated.
Current age
36.8
Peak age · TE
27
Years past peak
−10
Output vs avg
+68 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 37
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 96 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
96 avg pct · FPAA +11.7
Snaps95 pct vs TE
902
53.1 / g
↓Tgt / snap 12%
Targets97 pct vs TE
108
6.4 / g
↓Catch rate 70%
Receptions94 pct vs TE
76
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 11.2
Receiving Yards97 pct vs TE
851
50.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
180
10.6 / g
→
Actual
191
11.2 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+11.7
+0.7 / g
Kelce turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +11.7 pts (≈ +0.7/g) over expectation.
TEKC17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Tgt / G
6.4
Snaps / G
53
Exp Pts / G
10.6
FPAA / G
+0.7
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.0
62nd vs TE
Median
10.1
11.4 avg
Ceiling
15.2
58th vs TE
low 1.6high 24.1
Balanced profile
Middle-of-pack volatility for a TE — 24% boom / 18% bust weeks, steadier than 58% of peers.
TEKC13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TEBalanced
Steadier than 58% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
18%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Full Analysis
Sign in for the full read
Tape Room
Tape Room
Advanced route analysis, snap-share trends, and usage patterns.
Get full access to Tape Room, projections, matchup grades, trade value, injury history, and the AI analyst read for Travis Kelce and every other player in the database.