RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Henderson is producing below the age-24 RB baseline and sits at the historical RB peak.
RBNEAge 23.8
Career phase
Peak window
Maximum expected output — the strongest age-adjusted window for the position.
Current age
23.8
Peak age · RB
24
At peak age
0
Output vs avg
−36 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 83 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, elite efficiency
83 avg pct · FPAA +31.0
Snaps84 pct vs RB
584
34.4 / g
↓Opp / snap 38%
Opportunities82 pct vs RB
222
13.1 / g
↓Touch rate 97%
Touches83 pct vs RB
215
12.6 / g
↓Yds / touch 5.3
Total Yards84 pct vs RB
1,132
66.6 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
177
10.4 / g
→
Actual
208
12.2 / g
FPAA · act − exp
+31.0
+1.8 / g
Henderson turns volume into output above what the opportunity alone predicts — efficiency is adding +31.0 pts (≈ +1.8/g) over expectation.
RBNE17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Complete
Opp / G
13.1
Snaps / G
34
Exp Pts / G
10.4
FPAA / G
+1.8
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.9
9th vs RB
Median
11.1
12.1 avg
Ceiling
16.4
11th vs RB
low 0.5high 32.3
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 18% boom but 41% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBNE27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 0% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
18%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
41%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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