WR · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Franklin is producing below the age-24 WR baseline and sits 2 yrs from the historical WR peak.
WRDENAge 23.5
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
23.5
Peak age · WR
26
Years to peak
+2
Output vs avg
−24 idx
Lifecycle map · WRCurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 84 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
84 avg pct · FPAA −9.2
Snaps76 pct vs WR
683
40.2 / g
↓Tgt / snap 15%
Targets88 pct vs WR
104
6.1 / g
↓Catch rate 63%
Receptions88 pct vs WR
65
3.8 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.9
Receiving Yards83 pct vs WR
709
41.7 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
182
10.7 / g
→
Actual
173
10.2 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−9.2
−0.5 / g
Franklin is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 9.2 pts (≈ −0.5/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
WRDEN17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
6.1
Snaps / G
40
Exp Pts / G
10.7
FPAA / G
−0.5
Role trend · opp / wk↓ cooling
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
4.1
8th vs WR
Median
8.5
10.4 avg
Ceiling
14.6
6th vs WR
low 0.0high 26.9
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a WR — 18% boom but 35% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
WRDEN39 WR pool
Steadiness vs WRVolatile
Steadier than 8% of qualified WRs
Boom rate
18%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
35%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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