TE · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Warren is producing above the age-24 TE baseline and sits 3 yrs from the historical TE peak.
TEINDAge 24.2
Career phase
Ascending
Value building — production trending toward the positional peak window.
Current age
24.2
Peak age · TE
27
Years to peak
+3
Output vs avg
+5 idx
Lifecycle map · TECurrent Age 24
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 96 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
96 avg pct · FPAA −11.5
Snaps94 pct vs TE
899
52.9 / g
↓Tgt / snap 12%
Targets98 pct vs TE
112
6.6 / g
↓Catch rate 68%
Receptions94 pct vs TE
76
4.5 / g
↓Yds / rec 10.8
Receiving Yards96 pct vs TE
817
48.1 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
200
11.8 / g
→
Actual
189
11.1 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−11.5
−0.7 / g
Warren is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 11.5 pts (≈ −0.7/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
TEIND17 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Tgt / G
6.6
Snaps / G
53
Exp Pts / G
11.8
FPAA / G
−0.7
Role trend · opp / wk→ steady
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes17 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
7.0
62nd vs TE
Median
9.5
11.1 avg
Ceiling
16.5
73rd vs TE
low 3.7high 18.3
Steady floor play
Steadier than 100% of TEs — a dependable weekly floor (12% bust weeks). Start-and-forget, strong in cash.
TEIND13 TE pool
Steadiness vs TESteady
Steadier than 100% of qualified TEs
Boom rate
24%
weeks ≥ 15
Bust rate
12%
weeks ≤ 5
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 15bust ≤ 5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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