RB · historical aging curveproduction index vs age
PRODUCTION INDEX
Jr. is producing below the age-27 RB baseline and sits 3 yrs past the historical RB peak.
RBNYGAge 26.7
Career phase
Early decline
Easing off peak — watch efficiency and snap-share retention.
Current age
26.7
Peak age · RB
24
Years past peak
−3
Output vs avg
−12 idx
Lifecycle map · RBCurrent Age 27
Draft-eligible
Breakout
Peak
Prime decline
Veteran
Tail
1823283338
Aging curves are historical positional averages, not individual projections. Player points reflect real season production normalized to a positional index. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Touch & Opportunity FunnelVolume 82 pct
Opportunity funneltick = positional percentile
Elite volume, efficiency leak
82 avg pct · FPAA −2.7
Snaps80 pct vs RB
548
36.5 / g
↓Opp / snap 41%
Opportunities83 pct vs RB
224
14.9 / g
↓Touch rate 95%
Touches82 pct vs RB
212
14.1 / g
↓Yds / touch 4.8
Total Yards83 pct vs RB
1,028
68.5 / g
Efficiency verdict · actual vs expected
Expected
166
11.0 / g
→
Actual
163
10.9 / g
FPAA · act − exp
−2.7
−0.2 / g
Jr. is leaving points on the table: actual trails expected by 2.7 pts (≈ −0.2/g). The opportunity is there; the efficiency is the leak.
RBNYG15 G
Opportunity vs efficiency
EFFICIENCYCOMPLETEAT-RISKVOLUME
← LOW OPPHIGH OPP →
Efficiency leak
Opp / G
14.9
Snaps / G
37
Exp Pts / G
11.0
FPAA / G
−0.2
Role trend · opp / wk↑ rising
Weekly trace · opportunity vs actual pts
Bars — opportunityLine — actual pts
1
2
3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
Opportunity and expected points are derived from real weekly play data (snaps, targets, touches). Expected points model rush and receiving volume — not a projection. Percentiles are positional ranks, not composite ratings. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
Range of Outcomes15 G · weekly PPR
Expected weekly rangep20 – p80 of game scores
Floor
5.6
24th vs RB
Median
8.1
10.7 avg
Ceiling
16.4
11th vs RB
low 0.6high 27.9
Boom-or-bust
High week-to-week swing for a RB — 13% boom but 47% bust weeks. A ceiling/leverage play, not a safe floor.
RBNYG27 RB pool
Steadiness vs RBVolatile
Steadier than 15% of qualified RBs
Boom rate
13%
weeks ≥ 20
Bust rate
47%
weeks ≤ 8
Weekly distribution · PPR by game
boom ≥ 20bust ≤ 8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Floor / median / ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentiles of the player's real weekly PPR scores (2025, ≥12 games). Percentiles and steadiness are ranks within the position. Boom/bust use position-standard weekly thresholds. Research only — not investment or wagering advice.
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